– Get sign off for intermediate deliverables
Here’s how to assess the potential cost impact of a risk:
In other words, this way of calculating contingency uses the risk exposure as a way of working out the additional costs that may be required to meet the project objectives if the worst happens.
Advantages: Logical. Easy to explain to the project sponsor and team members.
Disadvantages: Time-consuming to do that level of analysis on every risk.
Tip: If your project doesn’t warrant doing that level of analysis on every risk (because over here in real life, we have barely any time to dedicate to full risk management while trying to juggle multiple projects and not burnout), then do it for the major risks and use the % of project base estimate for everything else.
An advanced method for calculating project contingency is to quantify risk using a method like Monte Carlo simulations. To use this method, you need to understand and estimate the best, worst, and most likely effort needed to complete each task in a project.
Monte Carlo-based software randomly combines those different estimates to determine the overall probability that the entire project will be completed within a specific budget.
Advantages: You can select the desired probability or confidence in the final budget that is consistent with your desired risk tolerance. Your contingency is likely to be accurate for your needs.
Disadvantages: Creating those estimates and running the Monte Carlo simulation takes time and vetting the estimates is also critical. This option needs a lot of thought, time investment, and someone skilled at using the software. It’s overkill for small, low-risk projects.
Another advanced method for working out your contingency reserve amount is to define the class of estimate for your project budget (the level of certainty).
This is typically based on guidelines for different classes of cost estimates, as explained by the Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE) and their classification of estimates.
The classifications are based on specific criteria for the level of project information available (data used as the basis of the estimate). More detail means a tighter tolerance or increased likelihood that the project cost will fall without the desired range.
This method can be used with factored estimates that combine high-level or rough estimates, vendor quotes, and even previous costs from similar projects.
Advantages: You can perform the minimum level of work, engineering, or effort needed to meet the desired estimate range. For example, a Class 3 estimate might have a cost estimate range of -10%/+30%, while a Class 5 estimate has a range of -3%/+15% but Class 5 does require additional work and time to better define the project and achieve the tighter estimate tolerance.
Disadvantages: If you had to read that section twice, you are not alone! This is a specific and complex way of working that will suit certain projects but if you don’t already know your project falls into that category then skip this method.
Note: A management reserve is different from the amount of contingency you have. Management reserves have a different call-off process and might be used for unforeseen changes.
Ongoing review and validation of project risks and associated contingency should occur throughout a project.
In the example in the table above, the 3 main risks listed have a total impact of $65,000. If one of the risks no longer applies, let’s say resources do not need training, then the contingency can either be reassigned or released from the project.
If released, the contingency would become $65,000 – $5,000 (less the proposed training budget) = $60,000.
Experience shows that it is easier to release contingency than to add it back, so be sure to keep that in mind. Don’t hand back funding unless you are sure you won’t need it later!
In addition to cost and schedule impact, the timing of potential risks should also be considered. You might assume that as a project nears completion that all contingency could be released.
The IPA Cost Estimating Guidance says that as a project:
“becomes more defined and scope and risks are further identified, the size and allocation of contingency must be revised.”
However, pay close attention as some projects have risk that is heavily weighted towards the end of the project. For example, if there are deliverables to review and acceptance does not occur until the end, there is a chance that some updates or rework may occur towards the end of a project.
Be sure to understand the timing of risk on a project and communicate that so that everyone is aligned on expectations.
On one project early in my career, I wanted to use some contingency funding. I had a specific reason, and I knew the money was there. At least, I’d been told that it was.
But I couldn’t get it.
It seemed like no one knew the process for accessing the funding. Where were my contingency funds?
I learned to check the process for accessing the contingency budget (and ideally, to be in charge of it).
Your organization might have or require separate documentation for contingency release. There may be a formal process for requesting and allocating contingency funds if you do not manage them. This may be noted in the project risk register, or via a separate document or process.
Regardless of the process, you want to provide traceability that explains how and why the contingency funds were spent. That traceability is important to ensure transparency, in the event of a project audit, for potential stakeholder questions, etc.
What happens when a risk does occur? Technically, at this point, it becomes an issue. Before that ever happens, a good project manager, along with the support of their team, will have developed what is called contingency plans.
A contingency plan is the specific action (or actions) one takes if an identified risk occurs. It’s your Plan B. At least one or more contingency plans should be identified for each known risk.
For example, in the table above, resources lacking adequate training were identified as a risk. The impact of that risk could be that people will spend additional time due to inefficiency or perhaps they will need to do some rework.
The contingency plan for that is to provide training (at a cost of $5,000) to ensure technical alignment and higher efficiency. If the team does need training, the risk becomes an issue, and the contingency plan swings into action to provide that training at a cost of $5,000.
Project schedules can also make use of contingency plans. This is typically in the form of additional days incorporated in scheduled activities.
For example, for a project phase that takes 12 weeks, we might add roughly 10% (let’s say 5-7 additional working days) of contingency in the schedule. This is time to cover unknown technical issues that need to be addressed and might otherwise cause some delays. By building that time into the schedule , we can reduce potential schedule exposure.
What contingency should a project have.
There is no single answer to how much contingency a project should have. The level of contingency funding or schedule contingency is determined by how risky the project is.
There are a few ways to calculate project contingency. A common and reliable method is to assess the mitigation costs for all known risks and use that as the basis for putting a value on risk exposure. That then becomes your contingency allowance figure.
Here’s an example of contingency: If there is a risk that the cost of a component part will increase, we could use past increases to forecast potential cost increases and include that in the contingency budget.
We have defined contingency, reviewed ways to calculate it, explained where to document it, and how to provide a contingency plan for when things do occur. Now it’s time to put that into action.
Your next steps are:
However, this should give you enough information to get started and give you a better idea of what to expect through project completion. Now you can go out and celebrate securing your funding!
Read Next: 4 Categories of Project Management Methods
Project manager, author, mentor
Elizabeth Harrin is a Fellow of the Association for Project Management in the UK. She holds degrees from the University of York and Roehampton University, and several project management certifications including APM PMQ. She first took her PRINCE2 Practitioner exam in 2004 and has worked extensively in project delivery for over 20 years. Elizabeth is also the founder of the Project Management Rebels community, a mentoring group for professionals. She's written several books for project managers including Managing Multiple Projects .
In an uncertain situation like the current COVID-19 crisis, a contingency plan is the key to being able to keep providing services. Organizations of all sorts—governments, private companies, universities, etc.—need to followed a detailed process that will allow them to plan the best possible response to the various scenarios that may come to pass. In this article, Borja Santos outlines the process of designing a contingency plan—which should include a basic plan, contingency-specific responses, and support functions—and discusses the need for regular updates and improvements.
The crisis due to COVID-19 makes us live in a context full of uncertainties. Many of our countries are at different levels of quarantine and lockdown, and whether we work for a government, a private company, or a university, we are not sure how we will have to provide our services or carry out our planning.
In some countries, crises like diseases, drought, or floods happen recurrently but their impact varies every year. Thus arises the question of how best to plan a response to a situation where uncertainties are present. Contingency planning is an effective approach and it is advisable to know how to design a plan of your own.
According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction ( UNDRR ), a contingency plan is a management process that analyzes specific potential events or emerging situations that might threaten society. These plans establish arrangements in advance to enable timely, effective, and appropriate responses to such events and situations.
Contingency planning is a process in which stakeholders work together to identify potential crisis scenarios and develop a shared understanding about the risk. This style of planning helps establish a common set of principles and mechanisms as to how an organization would make decisions during a potential crisis.
The team should build relationships, collaboration, and confidence, which can lead to understanding, with the aim of obtaining a better response in the event of an emergency.
Preparation of the plan
In order to design and implement a contingency plan, it is important to choose a collaborative team that includes experts from all relevant departments or units of your organization. It should also include civil society representatives if the plan targets a particular region. The team should build relationships, collaboration, and confidence, which can lead to understanding, with the aim of obtaining a better response in the event of an emergency. The process of preparing a contingency plan is shown in the following chart.
How is it structured?
A contingency plan can be divided into three main sections:
Contingency planning is a process in which stakeholders work together to identify potential crisis scenarios and develop a shared understanding about the risk.
First, the basic plan should describe the most important aspects of any emergency coordination. Who has the authority to activate the plan or to take particular decisions? Who should be responsible for directing different response activities (and who can they delegate responsibility to)? How will they coordinate amongst themselves? For example, at IE University, there is a task force formed by representatives of the different departments, who meet on a daily basis and coordinate to make decisions based on the new circumstances.
Furthermore, it is important to describe information and communication management. How will information will be collected, analyzed, and disseminated? What are the main mechanisms used to identify and assess the needs of your community, your clients, or your staff? What are the alert and warning mechanisms at the institution?
It is also very important to define the possible emergency funding sources and the logistics and management mechanisms used to identify and acquire resources in advance and during emergency operations, especially to overcome gaps in capacity. What resources are needed? What resources are available? What are the different processes and timelines for allocating resources and who oversees these processes?
Finally, we need to know the main aspects and factors of our risk. What is the location, intensity, frequency, and probability of the main hazard(s)? How great is our exposure and vulnerability? What are our main coping mechanisms and capacities?
Specific responses
Second, we need to analyze contingency-specific responses. We need to provide details of the probable impact(s) and negative consequences of each contingency, that is, the characteristics of the different potential scenarios, including the number of people affected in different population groups and the various negative effects and losses for society or for your institution or company. Knowing the losses gives us a clear idea of the magnitude of the likely impact and allows us to estimate various planning assumptions for likely needs, in terms of both response capacity and resource needs. It is very important to plan not only for a likely scenario but also for an undesirable scenario.
This section should also provide specific early warning indicators and triggers for action based on realistic startup times for emergency interventions. A number of quantitative or qualitative early warning indicators and triggers should be identified for each scenario—for example, different levels of a state of alarm and how they would affect society or your company.
It is very important to provide information about the resources required to respond to the emergency in each scenario.
Finally, we should indicate which emergency support functions will be activated for each scenario (and each hazard, if there is more than one).
It is very important to plan not only for a likely scenario but also for an undesirable scenario.
Support functions
Third, we must take into account the emergency support functions (ESFs). We need to define the critical operational functions necessary for an emergency response. Each ESF should include a description of the processes, roles, and responsibilities that the respective departments or stakeholders should carry out for preparedness and to achieve early recovery from a likely crisis situation. ESFs should focus on specific responsibilities, tasks, and operational actions needed for each function. We can have different ESFs depending on the context. If we are a national government, we might have defense, health, transport and mobility, foreign affairs, economy, and others; if we are a sales company, we might have marketing , communication, finance , and IT; and if we are a university, we might have admissions, faculty and teaching, student communication, etc.
Each ESF should include a checklist of actions identifying and describing the actions that will be taken in the event of an emergency (response and early recovery) as well as activities to be taken before the incident (preparedness).
Regular updates and improvements
Finally, contingency plans should be adapted to the current situation, as we are seeing nowadays with the COVID-19 outbreak. As it appears that this situation will last for several months, institutions and companies should design and test their contingency planning processes. This will allow them to make efficient, effective, and equitable use of resources.
The situation is uncertain and the potential scenarios are numerous. Even though we are already responding to the current emergency, we can still think about potential scenarios in the near future. This may not be traditional long-term planning, but it is a strong contingency planning proposal.
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Why is contingency planning important, 4 steps to develop a contingency plan.
Most days at work are business as usual — you hope. Unfortunately, there are also days where nothing seems to go right. Sometimes, these hiccups are just part of running an organization. And some days, they can be a major disruption in your work.
Because your clients and customers are relying on you to deliver as promised, it’s critical that you have a backup plan in place. There’s no way to prevent all mishaps from occurring, but you can minimize their impact with a little strategic planning .
Rather than waiting for the worst-case scenario to play out, companies — and individuals — can put together a contingency plan. This helps to ensure that normal business operations continue as smoothly as possible.
Learn what a business contingency plan is, why you should have one, and how to start planning in this article.
Contingency planning is a part of a business’ risk management strategy. It’s how companies foresee potential disruptions to the business.
Contingency planning is an action plan put in place to help individuals, teams, and organizations minimize disruption. In common terms, we think of this as “plan B.” Contingency plans are less about how to mitigate negative events and more about proactively developing problem-solving skills.
While traditionally, contingency planning have been an area of focus for managers and organizations, there are many benefits for individuals as well.
To understand contingency planning, it’s best to take a broad view. Sure, when companies have a crisis management plan in place, everyone sleeps a little better at night. It’s nice to know that you’ll know what to do if something happens.
But in life — as well as in business — the only real constant is change. As Tina Gupta, VP of Talent and Employee Experience at WarnerMedia puts it , “Change is not something to solve for.” Fear of change and uncertainty leads people to hide from it, interpreting every bit of rough air as a sign of an impending crash.
When you embrace a future-minded perspective , you no longer have to be afraid of uncertainty. Contingency planning becomes a strategy to be proactive instead of reactive . It’s an exercise in looking for ways to thrive instead of survive.
BetterUp calls this type of person a future-minded leader . Rather than running from potential threats or pretending everything is fine, they cultivate an agile mindset . These people combine optimism, pragmatism, and the ability to envision the future (or, what positive psychologists call prospection ).
Let’s look at how WarnerMedia has been able to embrace contingency planning as a tool to build a psychologically safe environment.
Before you can create a contingency plan, you need to identify the risks that may impact your business. The best way to do this is with the support of your team. Hold a brainstorming session where you can talk through recent experiences, upcoming initiatives, and common pitfalls.
This type of risk assessment can't protect you from being surprised. Tomorrow will hold unexpected events, many of which never happened before in your organization (months-long pandemic shutdowns anyone?) Instead think of this assessment as surfacing the things you can prepare for and opening up everyone's imagination to the range of possible obstacles and outcomes. This will prime the pump for awareness, a flexible mindset, and solution-seeking orientation.
Don’t make the mistake of limiting the meeting to just managers. Your entry-level employees and individual contributors will have a lot of insight as to what could happen — and how to handle it.
Companies often make strategic planning an annual event, but you should review your contingency plan more frequently. Risk assessment should ideally be a natural part of planning for every new initiative.
Here are 4 steps to develop a contingency plan for your team:
What are the risks? The first step in contingency planning is knowing which scenarios you’re preparing for. It’s impossible to predict everything, but chances are you can think of one (or ten) worst-case scenarios that would throw operations off.
Put these scenarios in order of likelihood. The most probable and important ones will form the backbone of your contingency plan.
In your hypothetical scenario, what would be the most likely course of action? Write that down, but be sure to ask: is it the best course of action? If your new plan is significantly different from what you’ve done before, you’ll want to talk it over with your leaders.
Get your team involved in this stage of the process. One of the benefits of planning in advance is that you have time to brainstorm responses. If the disruption has happened before, ask them what they did to resolve it and what they wish they had done differently.
Once you’ve created a viable plan, determine who the stakeholders are. Identify who needs to know as soon as plans change and who will be responsible for kicking plan B into gear. If anyone needs to authorize purchases, provide access to resources, or otherwise support the plan, make sure that they know as well.
If you can, do a practice run of your disaster recovery plan. The specifics will vary depending on the “disaster,” but running through the plan is a useful exercise. It will help you spot areas that you might not be able to predict in advance.
For example, when the coronavirus pandemic sent millions of workers into lockdown, companies that already had remote work policies in place were in the ideal position for the change. Companies that relied on brick-and-mortar workplaces had to quickly develop strategies to ensure remote team members had the technology and support they needed to work from home for an extended period of time.
In general, it’s a good idea to review your contingency plan on (at minimum) an annual basis. However, there may be other events that might trigger a review of your recovery strategies.
There are three main parts to your plan: the trigger (or unexpected event), the planned course of action, and the people involved. If any of these change, you’ll want to update your plan.
For example, moving to a new system, platform, or workflow would cause a change in both your Plan As and Plan Bs. If you hire for a new role that sits between functions, that may change the people involved.
Your business continuity plan isn’t just an exercise in preparedness. It’s an opportunity to help your teams learn how to become more agile and creative problem solvers.
Everyone, from a project management team developing a contingency plan for rolling out a new sales incentive, an IT team planning for a new system to go live, or a manager coaching an employee through creating a contingency plan for meeting work deadlines, needs to develop this skill. In a time of uncertainty and constant change, thinking through possible problems and alternatives in advance is part of life.
Gupta of WarnerMedia says that empowering her team through coaching has helped them "move from overwhelm to thriving through change." When they trust themselves, the company, and the plan, employees become more confident. They’re more willing to take risks and trust each other.
When things go awry, your plan won’t just minimize the potential impact. It will empower your team to thrive in uncertainty as they respond to whatever gets thrown their way.
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With over 15 years of content experience, Allaya Cooks Campbell has written for outlets such as ScaryMommy, HRzone, and HuffPost. She holds a B.A. in Psychology and is a certified yoga instructor as well as a certified Integrative Wellness & Life Coach. Allaya is passionate about whole-person wellness, yoga, and mental health.
Contingent workforce management: what employers need to know, leaders are prioritizing well-being over leadership skills in the post-covid workplace, when the new normal is a no-show: why future-mindedness is the mindset organizations need now, how to build a high performance team, according to patty mccord, transformation through coaching: netapp’s visionary approach to talent enablement, meet the future-minded leader: your organization’s answer to uncertainty, an exclusive conversation with fred kofman, deloitte webinar: unlocking human potential (the "roots & shoots" framework), 4 reasons why you can't afford to skip out on succession planning, the secret to developing managers that help your business thrive, people managers: the antidote to employee burnout, from self-awareness to self-control: a powerful leadership technique, building the human transformation company: the principles that shape our future, reflections on shift: cracking the code to people transformation in the workplace, and beyond, leading people as people, a conversation with cynt marshall, ceo of the dallas mavericks, the key to a more resilient organization is more resilient teams, one reason your diversity initiative isn’t moving numbers, stay connected with betterup, get our newsletter, event invites, plus product insights and research..
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Even as the H5N1 virus evolves, gaps remain in the nation’s contingency plans for human testing, scientists say.
By Apoorva Mandavilli
The first step in combating any infectious disease outbreak is detection. Without widespread testing, health officials have little sense of who is infected, when to treat patients and how to monitor their close contacts.
In that sense, the bird flu outbreak plaguing the nation’s dairy farms is spreading virtually unobserved.
As of Monday, the virus had infected 157 herds in 13 states. But while officials have tested thousands of cows and are monitoring hundreds of farmworkers, only about 60 people have been tested for bird flu.
Officials do not have the authority to compel workers to get tested, and there is no way for workers to test themselves. In the current outbreak, just four dairy workers and five poultry workers have tested positive for H5N1, the bird flu virus, but experts believe that many more have been infected.
The Covid-19 pandemic and the mpox (formerly monkeypox) outbreak in 2022 revealed deep fissures in the U.S. approach to testing for emerging pathogens. Those failures prompted federal agencies to move toward policies that would allow rapid scaling of testing during an outbreak.
But progress has been sluggish, interviews with more than a dozen academic and government experts suggest.
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To assist the research community to plan for these scenarios we have developed a template that addresses some of the critical aspects of contingency planning. It is expected that research teams that utilize specialized equipment, chemicals, human subjects, animal models complete a template.
Contingency planning is important in research because often times, technology, people and experiments in general can be unpredictable and fixing a mistake or an issue often takes more time if there is no contingency plan in place. ... Research Proposals. Scientific communication SyBBURE Searle December 13, 2019. Setting Research Goals. Project ...
A contingency plan example may be positive like when there's an unexpected surplus in the cash flow. But more often than not, the contingency planning process mostly refers to negative events. The events which might have a bearing on the organization's financial health, reputation or on its ability to continue with business operations.
The research proposal should include, whenever possible, a contingency plan in case some parts of the project go wrong or cannot be carried out. 25 Planning an alternative approach - a plan B - is particularly relevant when most of the objectives are interrelated and (unexpected) negative results from one may compromise the opportunity of ...
A business contingency plan is an action plan that is used to respond to future events that might or might not affect a company in the future. In most cases, a contingency plan is devised to respond to a negative event that can tarnish a company's reputation or even its business continuity. However, there are positive contingency plans, such ...
Contingency planning is what your project team does to prepare for specific risks that might happen during a project. A contingency plan might include extra funds, extra staff, or steps to take if a particular issue arises. Contingency planning is "surviving disruptions," says Erika Andresen, a business continuity and resilience expert ...
The Office of Research & Innovation (ORI) encourages researchers to develop individual contingency plans for possible disruptive scenarios that may affect your research activities. Three potential overarching scenarios are: potential reduction in a research team's workforce due to sickness or the inability to perform planned research activities;
Simple Contingency Plan Template. Use this simple contingency plan template to help your organization return to daily operations after unforeseen circumstances. Find sections for business impact analysis (BIA), recovery strategies, plan development, and testing and exercises. By completing these areas, you can stress-test your contingency plan.
A contingency plan is executed when the risk presents itself. The purpose of the plan is to lessen the damage of the risk when it occurs. Without the plan in place, the full impact of the risk could greatly affect the project. The contingency plan is the last line of defense against the risk.
To ensure safety of our researchers, staff, and research participants and to be aligned with the most recent NIH guidance, the Office of Research & Innovation is requesting that research involving person-to-person contact or gatherings of human research participants be paused as soon as possible unless needed for participant safety.
Lastly, they work with a reputable PR firm to prepare a plan for outreach and messaging to reassure customers in the event that their personal information is compromised. The value of contingency planning . When business operations are disrupted by a negative event, good contingency planning gives an organization's response structure and ...
Identify who needs to be aware of and involved in contingency planning. Choose appropriate communication methods for each stakeholder group. For instance, department heads may need specific meetings to focus on their section of the plan. Key employees might need a training session.
5 steps to create and manage an effective contingency plan. 1. Assess the identified risks for high impact. Review the risk register you have created, and select the risks that need to be included in a contingency plan. You can do this by assessing risks based on likelihood, impact, and severity.
A contingency plan is a proactive strategy to address risks and ensure project continuity when unforeseen events occur. Contingency planning helps manage risks, minimize impacts, and keep projects on track. A robust contingency plan can enhance resilience, protect project objectives, and improve project success rates.
contingency plans have emerged to re medy from post -disaster situations. T he ultimate goal in the. event of a disaster is to avail of the appropriate resources to ensure quick restoration to ...
A contingency plan is a practical plan you must put in place if a foreseeable risk materialises. It serves as a "Plan B" for when things don't turn out as predicted. A business contingency plan can reduce risk and help you return to normal operations. Contingency plans help in responding to natural disasters.
Here is a practical definition for contingency planning: The process of planning for response to an event or emergency; managing the escalation of an emergency into a crisis condition; recovery and resumption of activities from an emergency or crisis for the infrastructure, and executing critical processes, and other elements of a business or ...
The contingency plan for that is to provide training (at a cost of $5,000) to ensure technical alignment and higher efficiency. If the team does need training, the risk becomes an issue, and the contingency plan swings into action to provide that training at a cost of $5,000. Project schedules can also make use of contingency plans.
A project contingency plan is an established, pragmatic set of actions that your team will follow if a predetermined risk materializes and makes your initial plan impossible. For example, your software development team is updating a website for a retail company. In the middle of the project, your lead full-stack developer accepts a position ...
According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction ( UNDRR ), a contingency plan is a management process that analyzes specific potential events or emerging situations that might threaten society. These plans establish arrangements in advance to enable timely, effective, and appropriate responses to such events and situations.
One of the benefits of planning in advance is that you have time to brainstorm responses. If the disruption has happened before, ask them what they did to resolve it and what they wish they had done differently. 3. Determine who needs to know. Once you've created a viable plan, determine who the stakeholders are.
The plan recommends deep cuts or elimination of federal monies for research and investment in renewable energy and calls to "stop the war on oil and natural gas."
Proposal Due Date: May 16, 2024, by 5:00 PM local time of applicant ... o Appropriateness of the Budget and Research Plan . ROA Section 4: Post-award expectations ... o Milestone-driven projects with contingency plans o Special award terms o Flexibility to alter the course of the project (e.g., expanded, modified,
Climate Change: The proposal would undo much of the federal government's climate work, including by leaving the Paris Climate Agreement, overhauling the Department of Energy to promote oil and ...
revisions of the Agency's LongTerm Renewable Resources Procurement Plan, conducting key research, - modeling, and analysis related to assessing resource adequacy and reliability for Illinois, providing research and analysis to support the Agency's understanding of the economics of clean energy development, and other tasks as needed.
Even as the H5N1 virus evolves, gaps remain in the nation's contingency plans for human testing, scientists say. By Apoorva Mandavilli The first step in combating any infectious disease outbreak ...